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Lacy Hunt: The Economy Is "Far Worse" Than Wall Street Thinks. Recession Odds Are Actually Over 50%
Duration: 01:13:32
June 1, 2025
- Dr. Hunt believes the US economy is far weaker than generally perceived, with recession risks better than 50/50.
- First-quarter corporate profits, as measured by the BEA using IRS income tax payments, showed a significant fall, contrasting with S&P earnings focusing on "beating the street."
- Despite potential for a "big beautiful bill," Hunt believes it's primarily a tax extension with minimal stimulus impact, overshadowed by the debt overhang and potentially rising interest expenses.
Get Ready To 'Buy The Dip' | Lance Roberts
Duration: 01:55:48
May 31, 2025
- The market is currently considered overbought and poised for a correction, potentially between 5600 and 5800 on the S&P 500, which presents an opportunity to strategically "buy the dip".
- Lance and Adam discussed potential investment opportunities in AI and energy, noting the race between the US and China to increase electricity production for AI factories and data centers.
- The podcast also touched upon the the potential impact of high deficit spending on markets and the consumer, mentioning that although that these indicators are important to follow, "doom porn" surrounding these metrics should be tempered with pragmatism and balance.
In Volatile Markets Like These, Wait For The Fat Pitch | New Harbor
Duration: 01:02:14
May 29, 2025
- Market Update: The S&P 500 has rebounded significantly, nearly erasing recent losses, making new all-time highs a potential in the short-term.
- Portfolio Strategy: Despite the bullish short-term outlook, New Harbor Financial remains conservatively positioned with lower than average equity exposure at 45%, reflecting concerns about the macroeconomic environment.
- Bond Market Outlook: While acknowledging the popularity of a negative view on bonds, New Harbor Financial believes they are currently oversold and anticipates a temporary oversold bounce.
Stephanie Pomboy: Will Student Loan Defaults Trigger The Next Credit Crisis?
Duration: 01:12:56
May 28, 2025
- Student loan repayments restarting may act as a "pin" that compounds existing financial system vulnerabilities, especially for banks already facing challenges with corporate credit and commercial real estate.
- The maturity wall in corporate credit represents an "existential threat" due to the high volume of debt needing refinancing in the next few years at interest rates that remain stubbornly high.
- Stephanie Pomboy has increased her exposure to junior gold miners via the GDXJ ETF, viewing them as a levered and undervalued play on gold, with prices poised to move significantly higher given current macroeconomic conditions.
Think 5% Bond Yields Are High? You Ain't Seen Nothing Yet... | Jim Bianco
Duration: 01:06:34
May 27, 2025
- Jim Bianco believes the market is underestimating the potential for higher inflation due to tariffs, which will prevent the Fed from cutting rates and may lead to rates going higher.
- Bianco argues that the working class has paid a price for globalization in the form of gutted manufacturing jobs, and while tariffs may not be the perfect solution, a radical policy change is needed to address this issue.
- The rise of retail investors, empowered by low-cost ETFs and zero commissions, has made them a dominant force in equities, but their speculative behavior, fueled by social media and a gambling mentality, could lead to market instability.
Current Bear Market Rally To Bring "More Pain This Year" | Tom McClellan
Duration: 01:11:31
May 25, 2025
- The speaker believes the market is in a bear market year, based on a long-term leading indication from crude oil prices with a 10-year offset.
- Strong market breadth, indicated by a rising NYSE advance/decline line and a Zwag breath thrust signal, presents conflicting signals as this strength is unexpected during a bear market year and early in a new presidential term.
- The put/call ratio is at an extreme low, showing deeply entrenched bullish sentiment, while reverse repo data suggests liquidity is declining, potentially leading to a market downturn in the short term.
'Markets Are Very Very Overbought, We're Going To Have A Pullback' | Lance Roberts
Duration: 01:25:32
May 24, 2025
- Lance believes that the early May stock market rally can continue, but markets are currently overbought and due for a pullback.
- While fixed income auctions may generate scary headlines, the huge net short position currently on US treasuries is more likely to be a tailwind than a headwind.
- Despite deficit concerns, US treasuries remain the safest and most liquid sovereign debt option for global investors.
New Stock Market All-Time Highs Coming In Just A Few Weeks? | Fundstrat's Mark Newton
Duration: 01:27:26
May 23, 2025
- Mark believes the economy is largely in good shape, citing GDP, moderating inflation, a strong labor market, and stable housing.
- The recent market correction was likely just a temporary pullback within an ongoing bull trend, with potential for new all-time highs by July.
- Mark suggests diversifying into precious metals like gold and silver, and is awaiting a breakout in copper, anticipating gains into the fall.
There's A Global Run On Physical Gold (And Silver) Starting Right Now | Andy Schectman
Duration: 01:37:08
May 21, 2025
- The current administration's proposed spending and tax hikes could weaken the dollar, destroy the currency, and ultimately lead to significantly higher interest rates.
- There is evidence of central and commercial banks moving out of dollars and into precious metals, signaling a potential decline in the dollar's status as the singular world reserve currency.
- Despite price manipulation, a surge in demand for physical silver is evident, with mints and distributors struggling to maintain supply, suggesting a developing silver squeeze that could overwhelm the system.
Bipolar Investor Confidence Makes This Stock Rally Vulnerable | Peter Atwater
Duration: 01:10:34
May 20, 2025
- Peter Atwater argues that the 2025 market resembles a bungee jump more than a roller coaster due to its vertical drops and intense reversals, indicative of anxiety behind record highs.
- According to Atwater, investors are displaying a "passenger seat" mentality, exhibiting complacency and a lack of control, creating a situation where they feel like either beneficiaries or victims of others' decisions.
- The conversation highlights a potential generational shift, where the younger generations, raised with a focus on safety and certainty, may face disappointment in a volatile world and ultimately demand more control.