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The Hidden Fractures Behind America’s “Resilient” Economy | Aahan Menon
Duration: 00:53:44
December 3, 2025
- The economy is expanding with strong nominal spending driven by affluent consumers and AI capex, but significant under-the-hood divergences exist.
- Businesses are not yet charging for AI capex in the same way they are accounting for depreciation, creating a "profit juice" effect that is currently business-cycle stimulative.
- True investing edge lies in short-term risk management and portfolio adjustments, not in predicting the long-term economy, which is largely useless for trading.

The AI Economy Is Leaving Labor Behind | Weekly Roundup
Duration: 00:56:40
November 27, 2025
- The Fed's monetary policy continues to be highly centralized, causing significant market fluctuations based on anticipated rate cuts and policy shifts rather than consistent economic data.
- The booming AI sector is increasingly influencing economic policy and corporate strategies, with significant investment and government focus, raising questions about potential economic imbalances and the need for broader policy support.
- A growing discussion highlights wealth inequality and the struggle of the middle and lower classes to make ends meet, with insights suggesting the actual poverty line is significantly higher than official calculations and that current economic growth disproportionately benefits capital owners.

AI Is Ushering in an Entirely New Economic Paradigm | Jordi Visser
Duration: 00:55:12
November 26, 2025
- The insatiable and infinite need for AI stems from its application in making every machine more efficient, driving towards a potential deflationary spiral and offering an endgame for solving global problems.
- Traditional global macro indicators are becoming less reliable due to the rise of the digital economy and its intangibles, necessitating a shift in measurement towards metrics like profit margins and acknowledging the two-part nature of the modern economy.
- Bitcoin is presented as a digital gold, an "accepted store of value" and the representation of the digital economy, becoming increasingly relevant as governments debase fiat currency and capitalism cannibalizes itself, providing a moat in an era of disintegrating business moats.

AI’s CapEx Frenzy Hits Wall of Fed Hawkishness | Weekly Roundup
Duration: 01:01:30
November 20, 2025
- The AI capex cycle driven by companies like Nvidia is continuing, with strong earnings and guidance fueling market sentiment, though concerns are rising about how this can be funded long-term through increasing bond issuance.
- There's a growing divide in the economy, with large tech companies increasingly dominating debt markets, potentially crowding out smaller businesses and "Main Street" from crucial financing.
- The timing of economic data releases, particularly the jobs report being delayed until after the Fed's December meeting, has significantly reduced the odds of an interest rate cut and added to market uncertainty.

Why Cross-Border Flows Matter More Than Rate Cuts | Capital Flows
Duration: 00:51:45
November 19, 2025
- The biggest factor influencing public market liquidity is cross-border capital flows and trade, which is more significant than the Fed's actions.
- Household debt has decreased, and while there's potential for minor negative real growth, the primary risks lie in currency and government debt, not a 2008-style housing market collapse.
- The current market environment necessitates picking specific investment opportunities due to increased volatility and diverging sector performance, rather than broad market plays.

Hawkish Fed, Market Stress & a K-Shaped America | Weekly Roundup
Duration: 00:51:11
November 14, 2025
- The Fed's hawkish pivot amid peak inflation data creates significant market uncertainty and risks, as the central bank tightens financial conditions while forward-looking indicators suggest inflation may decline.
- Elevated concentrations in the S&P 500, particularly in a few tech giants, pose a national security threat and exacerbate wealth inequality, potentially leading to political instability and calls for structural reform.
- A widening gap between economic well-being for different segments of the population is fueling social unrest and political polarization, with indicators like rising car payment delinquencies and historically high homeownership ages suggesting a breakdown of the social contract.

America’s Two-Tier Economy Is Breaking Down | Weekly Roundup
Duration: 00:51:26
November 7, 2025
- The core economy faces significant recessionary pressures and stagnant growth, starkly contrasting with strong tech earnings and booming large-cap sectors.
- There's a pronounced "K-shaped" economic bifurcation, where wealth disparity, inflation, and divergent market performance exacerbate societal divisions.
- The conversation highlights issues with market structure, including high-frequency trading's role in extracting value from retail investors and the need for systemic reform for a more equitable financial system.

The Next Chapter For Blockworks | Empire
Duration: 01:10:16
November 5, 2025
- Blockworks has shut down its news division to focus on its data and research business.
- The speakers believe 2025 will be a significant turning point, marking the beginning of a 20-year bull market for the industry.
- There is a discussion about the increasing involvement of traditional finance players in crypto, exemplified by Western Union's partnership with Solana, and traditional payment companies evaluating acquisitions of crypto infrastructure like Zero Hash.

The Fed's Hawkish Cut & The Financial Hunger Games | Weekly Roundup
Duration: 00:55:57
October 31, 2025
- The Federal Reserve signaled caution on future rate cuts, with Powell explicitly stating that a December cut is not guaranteed, emphasizing the need for more economic data and hedging bets due to uncertainty.
- Market structure is shifting, with a growing need for private capital to fund industrial innovation as public markets become increasingly dominated by algorithms and meme-driven behavior.
- The rapid build-out of AI infrastructure is transitioning from free cash flow to debt financing, causing major tech companies to increase capital expenditures and raising questions about long-term sustainability and valuation.

Deficits Are Forcing the Fed Back Into Expansion | Lyn Alden
Duration: 00:58:26
October 29, 2025
- The Federal Reserve is likely to end quantitative tightening soon and may soon begin a period of a mild balance sheet expansion, though this is expected to be gradual, unlike the large-scale QE seen in COVID.
- Tariffs are a significant factor influencing the economy, acting as a speed bump on fiscal spending by acting as a unilateral tax increase, though they are not yet considered a game-changer for the overall fiscal deficit.
- The current economic environment is characterized by a "K-shaped" dynamic where fiscal stimulus and AI-driven capital expenditures create pockets of strength, masking underlying weaknesses in other sectors and leading to a "misery index" where consumers feel poorer despite low unemployment.
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