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Trump’s Tariffs Could Stall Growth Before 2026 Surge | Alfonso Peccatiello
Duration: 00:48:06
August 27, 2025
- The interview suggests that Trump may gain control of the FOMC, potentially leading to interest rate cuts even with above-trend nominal growth.
- The conversation highlights a possible near-term "fiscal net tightening" due to tariffs and TGA (Treasury General Account) rebuilding, contrasting with expectations of continuous fiscal stimulus.
- The guest recommends alternative asset allocations considering a "run it boiling hot" US economy, favoring commodities, crypto, and international equities over traditional bond and dollar hedges.
Will Powell’s Jackson Hole Speech Break Markets? | Weekly Roundup
Duration: 00:53:12
August 21, 2025
- The upcoming Jackson Hole Symposium presents a difficult situation for Powell, balancing the need to fight inflation with the risk of destabilizing markets and potentially losing Fed independence.
- Foreign buyers are retreating from Treasury auctions, leading to a "domestification" of US debt where banks are increasingly force-fed bonds, indicating potential issues with long-term financing.
- Despite short-term market volatility and uncertainty, the panelists generally agree that inflation remains a key concern and the economy has likely bottomed out, with potential for future growth driven by innovative sectors.
Crypto Credit Markets Will Rewrite Risk Management | David Grider
Duration: 00:49:03
August 20, 2025
- The digital asset space is integrating further with traditional finance, offering new opportunities in crypto-related equities, as well as more sophisticated derivative instruments.
- Managing risk is paramount for alpha generation in crypto, particularly through diversifying strategies beyond Bitcoin and ETH into areas like corporate credit within the digital asset space.
- The market for crypto-related credit is growing, potentially offering performing credit, convertible upside, and eventually distressed debt opportunities, creating a broader, more mature investment landscape.
Markets Are Underestimating the Risk of 10–15% Correction | Weekly Roundup
Duration: 01:07:41
August 15, 2025
- The guest speaker anticipates continued market volatility, with potential for significant drawdowns, and suggests having cash on the sidelines while considering downside hedges.
- Tariffs, rather than interest rates, may be the primary concern for markets in the coming months, potentially leading to a correction that Trump's administration might strategically welcome.
- Stablecoins could become the new Eurodollar system, giving the U.S. more control over global monetary policy in a period characterized by a shift away from freedom towards more centralized control.
Should We Be Worried About Jobs Report Revisions? | Guy Berger
Duration: 00:57:02
August 13, 2025
- The BLS establishment survey, used for the jobs report, is facing challenges due to increased business churn (births and deaths) post-pandemic, making accurate modeling more difficult.
- Immigration trends are significantly affecting labor force growth; current census models may be overestimating population growth due to aggressive new restrictions on immigration.
- While labor supply and demand appear to be decreasing at relatively equal rates, various offsetting factors, such as potential tariff impacts and the immigration squeeze, could lead to different scenarios, making labor market predictions very difficult.
The Financial Repression Endgame | Weekly Roundup
Duration: 00:56:35
August 8, 2025
- The hosts discuss the increasing likelihood of Federal Reserve rate cuts in September.
- The podcast explores the potential consequences if Trump-era tariff implementations are overturned, including a massive refund and increased uncertainty.
- The speakers debate the ramifications of Vanguard increasing its allocation to bonds, questioning whether it is prudent given the current economic environment and the "Ponzi nature of the system."
Markets Haven’t Priced In The End of Fiscal Tailwinds | Andy Constan
Duration: 01:11:09
August 6, 2025
- The Fed's recent meeting revealed internal disagreements with two dissents, highlighting ongoing debates about monetary policy.
- Changes to Treasury's quarterly refunding announcement (QRA) could have resulted in money-printing effects through bill issuance, but the outcome was closer to a "cold water" scenario, causing a dollar rally.
- The fiscal impulse is contractionary due to tariffs, offsetting the potential stimulus from the "big beautiful bill," unless industrial deregulation is implemented.
Will Market Euphoria Cool Off In August? | Weekly Round-Up
Duration: 00:59:36
August 1, 2025
- The labor market is sending mixed signals, with payrolls missing expectations but the unemployment rate remaining flat, largely due to a cratering labor force participation rate driven by a sudden stop in immigration.
- There's concern that the Fed's easing cycle may not effectively stimulate the economy due to factors like existing high valuations, persistent tariffs offseting fiscal stimulus, and a divergence between the productivity boom in large-cap tech and struggles in other sectors like housing and commercial real estate.
- Investment strategy may shift as current macro conditions create a "global Ponzi scheme" in fiat, with sovereign investors increasingly viewing the S&P 500 as a store of value rather than sovereign bonds.
The Fed Is Fueling A New Inflation Wave | Danny Dayan
Duration: 00:55:33
July 30, 2025
- Danny Dan argues that current Fed policy may be too stimulative, particularly given the recent contraction in the economy's potential growth rate due to decreased immigration.
- A key theme is the development of a new "financial conditions loop" framework that separates growth and inflation impulses from various asset classes, a departure from traditional financial condition indices.
- Dan expresses a bearish outlook on the dollar, citing expectations of future dovish Fed appointments and the impact of trade policies on reducing dollar supply to trading partners.
Welcome to Peak Monetary Policy Theater | Weekly Roundup
Duration: 00:51:53
July 26, 2025
- The discussion highlighted the multi-year erosion of Fed independence and the potential for increased political influence, especially if Trump gains more control over the board.
- The speakers analyzed the upcoming Treasury Refunding Announcement (QRA), noting the potential for dovish moves that could signal the administration's intentions to juice markets through the end of the year.
- There was a discussion of a possible shift in the dollar's behavior, potentially decoupling from traditional correlations with rate differentials, mirroring a trend previously observed with gold and real yields.
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