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Trump’s Tariff War Gets Sidelined By The Courts | Weekly Roundup
Duration: 00:54:43
May 30, 2025
- A federal court ruling paused the Trump administration's sweeping tariffs, leading to market volatility as the administration plans to appeal the decision, creating increased trade uncertainty.
- The hosts debated the potential impact of Generative AI on productivity and employment, highlighting the possibility of massive imbalances and a need for hedges like gold and Bitcoin.
- The presenters discussed the global trend of "activist treasury issuance" (ATI) where countries are issuing more short-term debt and potentially manipulating bond yields, raising concerns about long-term economic stability.
The US Economy Is About To Take Off And Bring Stocks With It | David Cervantes
Duration: 00:56:04
May 28, 2025
- David Cvantes pivoted from a bullish growth outlook to a more hedged position as the new administration discussed deficit reduction.
- The massive fiscal deficits are acting as a Teflon economy, making it hard to induce a recession despite potential shocks.
- Due to immigration dynamics, the Fed faces a complex situation where soft NFP prints may not necessarily lead to a rise in U3 unemployment, potentially resulting in the Fed misinterpreting the labor market.
America’s Debt Spiral Is Accelerating | Weekly Roundup
Duration: 00:54:47
May 23, 2025
- A significant shift is underway as fiscal policy now seems oriented toward "running it hot," prioritizing economic growth to outpace debt, rather than focusing on austerity.
- The discussion highlighted a key theme: the potential unsustainability of the U.S. economic model, given its reliance on foreign capital and the potential for capital repatriation due to factors like tariffs and changing global dynamics.
- The conversation emphasized that Japan's situation, particularly the rising JGB yields and pressures on the yen, could be a leading indicator of challenges the U.S. may face in the future.
America Is Risking A Liz Truss Moment | Kevin Muir
Duration: 01:11:35
May 21, 2025
- Kevin Mir shifted his macro framework to heavily emphasize fiscal policy after traditional models failed to predict economic outcomes following the GFC.
- Despite the US running significantly larger deficits than other developed nations, credit rating downgrades are largely irrelevant because the US can always print money to cover its debt.
- Considering the potential for increased foreign exchange volatility and overpriced equity & bond markets, expressing views through long-dated options is optimal in the current macro environment.
The Fiscal Spiral Has No Off Switch | Weekly Roundup
Duration: 00:52:31
May 17, 2025
- The speakers discuss the recent US-China trade deal, emphasizing that while it exceeded expectations, tariffs remain elevated, and it may only be a temporary pause in a longer-term trade conflict.
- Tyler argues that markets are no longer free and should be viewed as a "political utility," driven by flows, systematic investing, and buybacks rather than fundamental analysis.
- The conversation highlights concerns regarding the unsustainability of the US's "twin deficits" (fiscal and current account), suggesting potential long-term negative implications for the US Dollar and bond market, potentially benefiting assets like Bitcoin and gold.
The Next Big Trade Is Hiding In Plain Sight | Citrini
Duration: 00:55:17
May 16, 2025
- Trump's trade policy strategy, considered a generational inflection point, is constrained by factors such as debt refinancing needs and the need for Republican unity on tax policy, influencing the likelihood of continued trade negotiations.
- Despite widespread economic anxieties, hard data like normalizing credit card delinquencies and decreased job openings without mass layoffs suggest the economy is undergoing a normalization rather than a severe downturn, with potential upside if trade deals progress.
- Robotics is identified as a key investment area where the US is lagging behind China, with a focus on companies exposed to the bottoming automotive cycle and the secular trend of robotics, especially those that can capitalize on government spending and AI-driven "robot brains."
China Trade Deal Doesn't Change Where We're Headed | Luke Gromen
Duration: 00:52:43
May 14, 2025
- Focus remains on currencies: Balance of trade discussions inevitably lead to the yuan/dollar cross rate, suggesting a need for dollar devaluation to improve US competitiveness.
- U.S. Treasury market dysfunction is a limiting factor: The bond market acts as a constraint, so the US may resort to policies like yield curve control and capital controls.
- Future of globalism is fragmenting: A re-regionalization is occurring with the world dividing into spheres of influence around the US and China.
The Fed's Strategy Is To Be Late | Weekly Roundup
Duration: 00:56:21
May 9, 2025
- The Fed is signaling a potential shift from a proactive to a reactive stance, increasing the likelihood of being "intentionally late" with rate cuts and setting up a potentially bearish dynamic.
- Despite recent positive news, the market's reaction to events suggests a significant amount of bullish sentiment is already priced in, and downside risks, such as deflation coupled with Fed inaction, are becoming more prominent.
- There are concerns about over-allocation to US assets by foreign entities, particularly in Mag 7 stocks, with the Taiwan dollar's move potentially indicating a broader trend and increasing the risk of a significant outflow.
Supply Chain Expert Breaks Down The Fallout From Trump’s Trade War | Craig Fuller
Duration: 00:54:28
May 8, 2025
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The conversation highlighted the significant differences between current supply chain disruptions and those experienced during COVID-19, emphasizing that the current issues are driven by geopolitical and policy decisions, specifically relating to a trade dispute with China rather than a health crisis.
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Craig Fuller pointed out that large companies have better prepared for ongoing supply chain challenges by frontloading inventory, while small businesses lack the resources and infrastructure to manage these changes, leaving them highly vulnerable to upcoming disruptions.
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The discussion forecasted that if trade relations do not improve by mid-summer, there could be a substantial impact on inventory levels and potential stockouts particularly during the critical back-to-school and holiday shopping seasons, affecting consumer products and smaller enterprises disproportionately.
The Die Is Cast For A 2025 Recession | Neil Dutta
Duration: 00:51:49
May 7, 2025
- Neil Da indicates a shift in economic outlook, now suggesting that a recession might be imminent or already underway due to declining consumer savings and a weakening labor market, contrasting with his earlier views in 2022.
- He highlights significant changes in the housing market, noting that home building stocks are underperforming, indicating potential declines in residential construction activity, which may contribute to the economic slowdown.
- The discussion delves into the complexities of inflation vs. unemployment, suggesting that while inflation concerns persist, the labor market dynamics signal a troubling trend that may push unemployment rates higher, complicating the Federal Reserve's decision-making process.