MTS
Both Sides Are Overconfident On AI | Toby Ord
Sep 29, 2026
About this episode
Oxford researcher Toby Ord breaks down the power-law mathematics of agent swarms, how parallel AI coordination alters recursive self-improvement timelines, and why transformative AI could arrive before 2030. Check out our sponsor Lovable: https://lovable.dev. Turn ideas into software people love. MTS is a live news and interview show covering technology, business, politics, and culture as it happens. Follow MTS: X | https://twitter.com/MTSlive YouTube | https://www.youtube.com/@mtsituation Spotify | https://open.spotify.com/show/4HUNNmV1pjV7CW6Lphm1rM Apple | https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/mts/id1891088763 Substack | https://mtslive.substack.com/ Interested in sponsoring the show? sponsors@mts.now -- Brought to you by: Mongo DB - Anyone can prototype an agent. Learn how to get them into production on September 30th in New York - register at https://www.mongodb.com/events/mongodb-local/nyc Lovable - Turn ideas into software people love with Lovable. Start today at https://lovable.dev/ Larridin - Finally prove what your AI investment is worth. Head to https://larridin.com/ today to start measuring your AI’s bottom line. Neon (by Databricks) - Get up to $100K in credits for your startup at https://neon.com/mts ElevenLabs - AI that communicates at human level across every channel and modality. https://elevenlabs.io/mts Arena - Measuring AI performance in the real world. https://arena.ai/ Kong - The AI connectivity platform. Connect APIs, LLMs, agents, and systems with serious security and governance. https://konghq.com Today’s stream is sponsored by VCX, the public ticker for private tech. Head over to http://getvcx.com to learn more Blitzy - Autonomous software development for enterprise codebases. Ship 5x faster. https://blitzy.com AdQuick - Make your brand a billboard. Out-of-home advertising as easy to scale as digital. https://adquick.com Chargebee - Billing and monetization infrastructure for the AI era. https://www.chargebee.com/ -- Timestamps: (00:00) Introduction (00:39) Swarm Scaling Laws Explained (00:37) Accelerating Recursive Self-Improvement (08:11) Why Swarms Scaled Recently (09:44) Forecasting AI Capability Timelines (13:50) Regulating Superintelligence via FLOPs (15:35) Effective Altruism Origins (20:19) Countering Doomer Cult Claims -- Note : This podcast is not investment, legal, or tax advice, and is intended for informational and entertainment purposes only. Hosts and guests may hold positions in the companies and securities discussed; do your own research before acting on anything you hear.