Energy Shock and Rate Hikes Could Cause a 2022 Style Bear Market | Eric Wallerstein | Clocktower Group

About this episode

Eric Wallerstein, Chief Macro Strategist at Clocktower Group, joins OPM to discuss why he sees substantial risk that the Fed is making a policy mistake by hiking into a supply shock that could cause a 2022 style bear market. He also explores the global coordination of rate hikes and why he believes the participation of lower growth economies like Canada indicate that this is a reaction to higher energy prices and not a substantially higher global neutral rate. Try model portfolios available on Plutus and get a 45-day fee waiver when you signup with code OPM45: https://runplutus.com/mm-opm/login Follow Eric on X: https://x.com/ericwallerstein Follow Max on X: https://x.com/maxwiethe Follow Other People’s Money on: Apple Podcast https://bit.ly/4e7QJ1M Spotify https://bit.ly/3Yhaazi YouTube https://bit.ly/3C63VXR X https://x.com/opmpod JFMW Partners LLC (“Promoter”) is providing this endorsement of, and information related to, the advisory services offered by Namsoft Advisors LLC ("Namsoft"). Promoter is not a current client or investor in any Namsoft advisory account or private fund. Promoter receives cash compensation from Namsoft in the form of a flat referral fee of $750 for each client that engages Namsoft as a result of Promoter's promotional activities. Because Promoter is compensated for this endorsement, a material conflict of interest exists, as Promoter has a financial incentive to promote Namsoft's services to you. This endorsement is delivered as part of a podcast or other audio program produced by Promoter and does not constitute investment advice or a recommendation that any particular advisory arrangement is suitable for you. Timestamps: 00:00 Intro 00:56 Fed Hike and Higher for Longer 02:30 Oil Driving Global Yields 05:58 Canada and Global Neutral Rate 07:14 Energy Crisis and Degrowth Risks 08:44 Politicized Fed and Credibility 11:50 Neutral Rate and AI CapEx Boom 14:47 Inflation Outlook and Policy Mistakes 17:20 Plutus Sponsor Break 18:46 Key Data to Watch: Bank Lending 20:07 Doves vs Hawks and Fiscal Drag 23:30 2022 Style Bear Market Setup 25:56 What Could Invalidate the Thesis? 26:41 BOJ Hike and Yen Intervention 31:20 Korea Silicon Boom 35:43 Europe Under Pressure 39:25 Middle East Outlook 43:06 Midterm Issues: AI vs. Gas Prices 48:34 China Oil Strategy 52:10 Big Calls Wrap