The Profits Come Now. The Costs Come Later. Kevin Muir on Whether AI Earnings Are the Bubble

About this episode

Kevin Muir of The MacroTourist joins Matt Zeigler to break down the bond market, Scott Bessent's Treasury buybacks, the Treasury General Account, AI-driven earnings growth, leveraged ETF risk, gold and the U.S.-Canada trade fight. Kevin explains why rising long-term yields may be less surprising than investors think, how the AI capex boom can inflate earnings before costs show up, and why leveraged ETFs and policy uncertainty could make markets more fragile. Kevin Muir on X https://x.com/kevinmuir The MacroTourist https://themacrotourist.com Topics covered Why stronger nominal GDP, large fiscal deficits and record corporate issuance are pressuring long-term Treasury yields How Scott Bessent's Treasury liquidity buybacks work and why investors are comparing them with QE and Operation Twist How replacing long-dated Treasuries with T-bills could ultimately force reserve management purchases by the Federal Reserve Why the Treasury General Account matters for liquidity and why attempts to manage the yield curve can distort market signals Jim Chanos's "earnings bubble" argument and how massive AI data-center capex can boost current earnings while costs are amortized Why stock prices can fall before forward earnings estimates roll over, and why retail investors may have an advantage over institutions How daily-reset leveraged ETFs create reflexive buying and selling and could amplify a semiconductor or single-stock selloff Why Kevin is bullish on gold again, the role of People's Bank of China demand, and how he combines fundamentals with technical signals Why platinum below production cost caught his attention and what rolling mini-bubbles in gold, silver and AI say about investor psychology What 2025 U.S.-Canada trade data says about autos, oil and gas, manufacturing, tariffs and the economic cost of policy uncertainty Timestamps 00:00 Intro 06:31 Scott Bessent's Treasury buybacks and the bond market 10:39 How T-bill issuance could lead to debt monetization 18:25 The AI capex boom and the "earnings bubble" 22:27 The giant bet embedded in accelerating AI earnings 27:37 Why leveraged ETFs are changing market structure 32:00 How forced ETF unwinds can amplify a selloff 36:41 Why Kevin is bullish on gold again 41:57 Platinum, production costs and the precious metals trade 46:08 Sentiment extremes and why popular trades get dangerous 51:00 Globalization, manufacturing and America's distribution problem 55:00 Why oil and gas dominate the U.S.-Canada trade deficit 59:00 How tariff uncertainty can deter U.S. manufacturing investment 01:03:10 The trade math Kevin wants investors to see Learn more about the Excess Returns podcast network: https://excessreturns.co No information discussed in this podcast should be construed as investment advice. Securities discussed may be held by the hosts and guests, their firms or their clients.