Podpower Episode Atlas

Overview

In this episode of Unchained, host Laura Shin interviews Alex Wesley, Institutional Data Lead at Artemis Analytics, to dissect a pivotal development in the crypto space: Coinbase's new deal with Hyperliquid. This agreement positions USDC as Hyperliquid's official treasury deployer and native stablecoin, a significant shift given the intense competition for Hyperliquid's native stablecoin just a year prior. Wesley explains the financial implications, noting that 90% of USDC yield on Hyperliquid will now flow to the platform, potentially increasing its annual revenue by 25% and diversifying its business model beyond purely trading-based income.

The conversation also delves into Coinbase's broader strategy, particularly its ambition to become a $300 billion company in an AI-native finance world. Wesley outlines his thesis, highlighting Coinbase's early lead in agentic commerce through X42 and Base, and its potential to monetize across the stablecoin and settlement stack. The discussion touches on the competitive landscape, including rivals like Stripe and Google, and the potential impact of the Clarity Act on Coinbase's business, especially regarding stablecoin yield offerings.

Finally, the episode circles back to Hyperliquid's remarkable growth and resilience in the perpetuals market. Despite fierce competition, Hyperliquid has maintained a dominant market share and innovated with real-world asset trading. Wesley emphasizes Hyperliquid's strong community and developer ecosystem, suggesting its offshore, no-KYC niche will continue to thrive, even as regulated entities like Coinbase and Robinhood enter similar markets. The episode offers a comprehensive look at the evolving dynamics between centralized and decentralized finance, stablecoin strategies, and the future of on-chain commerce.

Themes

Stablecoin Strategy / The episode explores the strategic importance of stablecoins, particularly USDC, in driving revenue and market share for platforms like Coinbase and Hyperliquid.DeFi-CeFi Convergence / Discussion centers on the blurring lines and strategic partnerships between decentralized platforms (Hyperliquid) and centralized exchanges (Coinbase).AI-Native Finance / The potential for AI agents to drive significant transaction volume and revenue in the future of finance, and how Coinbase is positioning itself.Market Dominance / Analysis of Hyperliquid's sustained leadership in the perpetuals market despite intense competition and its unique offshore niche.Regulatory Impact / How potential US legislation like the Clarity Act could shape business models and customer offerings for crypto companies.

Key Concepts

01

Aligned Quote Asset (AQA)

A new type of asset introduced by Hyperliquid (V2) where 90% of the yield generated (after costs) is distributed to Hyperliquid's assistance fund, aligning it with the ecosystem's growth.

Why careThis mechanism ensures that Hyperliquid directly benefits from the stablecoin yield, significantly boosting its revenue and incentivizing ecosystem growth.

02

Agentic Commerce

The concept of AI agents transacting on the internet, which is projected to become a multi-trillion dollar market. Stablecoins are seen as the superior currency for these programmable, internet-native transactions.

Why careThis represents a massive future growth vector for crypto platforms, with Coinbase positioning itself to dominate this space through its X42 protocol and Base chain.

03

X42 and Base

X42 is Coinbase's payment protocol for agentic transactions, and Base is its primary settlement chain. Both currently dominate their respective market shares in on-chain agentic payments.

Why careThese technologies give Coinbase a significant early lead in the emerging AI-native finance world, allowing it to monetize across the stack of agentic commerce.

04

Clarity Act

Proposed US legislation aimed at providing regulatory clarity for the crypto industry, particularly concerning market structure and stablecoin yield.

Why careIts passage could significantly impact how crypto companies, especially Coinbase, can offer interest or interest-like payments on stablecoins, affecting customer acquisition and retention.

05

Volume-to-Open Interest Ratio

A metric used by traders like Arthur Hayes to assess the 'realness' of trading volume on exchanges, by dividing the reported volume by the open interest.

Why careThis ratio provides a more reliable indicator of genuine trading activity, helping to differentiate legitimate platforms like Hyperliquid from those with potentially inflated volumes.

Quotes

"Today's news that they sold the brand assets to Coinbase, and now Coinbase will be the treasury deployer, it definitely feels like a big shift. I think it goes to show the power of distribution for stablecoins."
Alex Wesley Discussing the Hyperliquid-Coinbase deal and its implications for stablecoin market dynamics.
"On today's base of about $600 million in annualized revenue that Hyperliquid generates via its exchange, that's a 25% increase in annualized revenue."
Alex Wesley Explaining the significant financial boost Hyperliquid receives from the USDC deal.
"What this shows is that Coinbase is very certain in its, you know, growth as an as a US-based, primarily US-based compliant institution, whereas Hyperliquid, you know, I think they see as more of this, uh, you know, like outside of US jurisdiction, no KYC platform."
Alex Wesley Analyzing the strategic alignment between Coinbase and Hyperliquid despite their differing regulatory approaches.
"There's this sort of belief that stablecoins are the superior way for agents to transact since they are, you know, programmable, sort of internet native dollars."
Alex Wesley Highlighting the fundamental reason why stablecoins are crucial for the future of agentic commerce.
"I think it's overall a net positive that, you know, there wasn't like a complete ban on on stablecoin yield."
Alex Wesley Commenting on the potential outcomes of the Clarity Act regarding stablecoin interest offerings.
"Hyperliquid commands like a very comfortable like 50% share of the perpetuals market and, you know, even through this crypto downturn, Hyperliquid has actually been able to see, you know, some growth from these three markets."
Alex Wesley Emphasizing Hyperliquid's sustained dominance and growth in the perpetuals market.

Chapters

010:00Coinbase-Hyperliquid Deal: A Game ChangerLaura Shin and Alex Wesley introduce the surprising news of Coinbase acquiring USDH's brand and becoming the official USDC deployer for Hyperliquid.021:01Unpacking the Stablecoin ShiftAlex details the history of Hyperliquid's native stablecoin competition and how USDC's new role as an 'aligned quote asset' signifies a major strategic shift.033:04Hyperliquid's Revenue Boost & Coinbase's MotiveThey discuss the market's positive reaction to the deal, projecting a 25% revenue increase for Hyperliquid, and explore Coinbase's motivation to boost USDC distribution.046:12USDC's Ubiquity & Bilateral AgreementAlex explains how the deal underscores the goal of making USDC the number one stablecoin and the necessity of a bilateral agreement between Circle and Coinbase for yield sharing.0510:17Coinbase's Strategic Alignment with HyperliquidThe conversation shifts to Coinbase increasing its stake in HYPE, questioning why Coinbase would align with a no-KYC platform that could be seen as a competitor.0613:22Coinbase's $300 Billion AI-Native Finance ThesisAlex outlines his projection for Coinbase to become a $300 billion company by 2031, driven by agentic commerce and its role in stablecoin and settlement layers.0718:29Competition in Agentic CommerceThey discuss Coinbase's competitors like Stripe and Google in the agentic payments space and why Alex believes Coinbase's early lead will compound.0821:35Clarity Act's Impact on CoinbaseThe discussion turns to the potential passage of the Clarity Act and how it could affect Coinbase's ability to offer stablecoin yield and its customer acquisition strategy.0926:38Coinbase-Circle Relationship: Divorce Ahead?Laura and Alex explore the growing competition between Coinbase and Circle, questioning if their long-standing partnership is headed for an eventual 'divorce'.1029:41Hyperliquid's Trajectory and FutureThey conclude by examining Hyperliquid's continued dominance in the perpetuals market, its innovative RWA trading, and its strong community, despite the competitive landscape.

Take-Aways

  • 01Coinbase's deal to make USDC Hyperliquid's native stablecoin significantly boosts Hyperliquid's revenue and diversifies its business model.
  • 02The agreement highlights the strategic importance of stablecoin distribution for both Coinbase and Circle, even at the cost of yield sharing.
  • 03Coinbase is positioning itself to dominate the emerging multi-trillion dollar 'agentic commerce' market through its X42 protocol and Base chain.
  • 04Despite competition from tech giants, Coinbase's early lead in AI-native finance is expected to compound, driving substantial future growth.
  • 05The Clarity Act's potential passage could reshape how crypto platforms offer stablecoin yield, impacting customer acquisition and retention strategies.
  • 06The relationship between Coinbase and Circle is becoming increasingly competitive, raising questions about the long-term viability of their partnership.
  • 07Hyperliquid has demonstrated remarkable resilience and market dominance in the perpetuals space, proving its business model and strong community.

Open Questions

  • ?How does Coinbase's deal with Hyperliquid fundamentally alter the stablecoin landscape and Hyperliquid's revenue model?
  • ?What motivates Coinbase to align with a no-KYC, offshore platform like Hyperliquid, and what does this signify for the future of crypto regulation?
  • ?Can Coinbase achieve a $300 billion valuation by 2031 by dominating the 'AI-native finance' world, and what are the key drivers of this growth?
  • ?How will the Clarity Act, if passed, impact Coinbase's ability to offer stablecoin yield and its overall business strategy in the US?
  • ?Is the long-standing partnership between Coinbase and Circle destined for a 'divorce' as their business interests increasingly diverge?
  • ?What factors contribute to Hyperliquid's sustained dominance in the perpetuals market, and what does its trajectory suggest for the future of decentralized exchanges?

Glossary

USDH
Hyperliquid's former native stablecoin, which was sunsetted and its brand assets acquired by Coinbase as part of the new deal.
USDC
A regulated, dollar-pegged stablecoin co-founded by Circle and Coinbase, now becoming Hyperliquid's official treasury deployer and aligned quote asset.
Aligned Quote Asset (AQA)
A V2 asset type on Hyperliquid where 90% of generated yield (after costs) is distributed to the Hyperliquid ecosystem's assistance fund.
X42
Coinbase's payment protocol designed for agentic (AI-driven) transactions, currently dominating market share in on-chain agentic volume.
Base
Coinbase's blockchain, which serves as the primary settlement layer for agentic payments today.
MPP (Machine Payments Protocol)
Stripe's competing protocol for machine-to-machine payments, an alternative to Coinbase's X42.
Clarity Act
Proposed US legislation aimed at clarifying the regulatory framework for digital assets, particularly concerning market structure and stablecoin offerings.
Perpetuals (Perps)
Perpetual futures contracts, a type of derivative that allows traders to speculate on the future price of an asset without an expiry date, popular on platforms like Hyperliquid.

People Mentioned

Alex Wesley
Institutional Data Lead at Artemis Analytics and guest on the podcast, discussing market trends and the Coinbase-Hyperliquid deal.
Omar
Of Dragonfly, who tweeted about the potential for the Coinbase-Circle relationship to become competitive and end in 'divorce'.
Arthur Hayes
Mentioned for his method of using the volume-to-open interest ratio to assess the 'realness' of trading volume on exchanges.
Scott Besset
From Bain & Co., whose projection of $3 trillion in stablecoin supply by 2030 was referenced in Alex Wesley's Coinbase thesis.
Lethal Shooter
A pro basketball coach featured in a Coinbase promotion, challenging users to outpredict him for a share of Bitcoin.

Pull A Thread

  • Artemis Analytics reports on crypto market data and institutional trends.
  • Coinbase's X42 protocol and Base chain for agentic commerce.
  • The proposed Clarity Act and its implications for US crypto regulation.
  • The competitive landscape of perpetual decentralized exchanges (DEXs) like Hyperliquid, dYdX, and GMX.
  • The evolving relationship and competition between Circle and Coinbase.
  • Research on the projected growth of AI-native finance and agentic commerce.
Podpower / Atlas / 5970917